Robert & Lynn debate on college football

August 26, 2011

Lynn,

Aggie to SEC is not that big of a deal to the Big12.  Matter of fact, some argue that Texas (Delo$$ Dodd$) is actually wanting it to happen and actively trying to dissuade Kenn Star (Baylor Pres) from taking legal action against TAMU with regards to breach of contract.  If Texas ever wants to make a move in the future, its good to go ahead and sever the political ties to aggie now.  Aggie has been an impediment to UT moves in the past. 

The Big 12 will quickly add another 10th team, which will probably be BYU.  BYU is a school with better markets than A&M.  aggie doesnt command any major markets in Texas while UT overlaps every market in Texas.  BYU would add a completely separate market in the west and a potential 6 million mormon audience.  If BYU is going to join a conference again, it needs to be the Big12 since it has its own TV network now in BYUtv.  Matter of fact, BYU and UT worked together in creating each others networks.  BYU would be a perfect fit for the Big12 and an instant upgrade.

You poo-poo'd Notre Dame but dont be surprised if Notre Dame joins or develops an association with the Big12.  UT's Delo$$ and Power$ have been in contact with ND for a year and a half about some sort of union.  Notre Dame is probably going to have to make a decision in about two or three years.  By that time, they will most likely have to join or make an association with a conference. Notre Dame fears that if there are more conference realignments, they could be squeezed out of BCS consideration or a playoff situation if that happens.  There are also reports that Comcast (who bought NBC this year) is not satisfied with the NBC-Notre Dame contract and will likely negotiate the revenue down for ND since their ratings have gone down considerably the last 10 years. 

Notre Dame could join the ACC or the Big East as a full member but the Big12 is actually more stable with better teams than either one of those conferences.  Right now, Missouri and Kansas are more regional to ND than any Big East or ACC teams where they dont have any natural rivalries.  There are rumors that the Big 12 will allow ND to bring along another team to join (likely Pitt) to join the Big12, bringing the Big12 back up to 12 teams with the inclusion of BYU first.  There is also talk that the Big12 could dissolve and reform with essentially the same schools but dropping Iowa State and Kansas State or Baylor (the weakest marketed teams in the Big 12) and add Notre Dame plus another school in another market (such as Pitt or Louisville); thereby making a very strong marketed 10 team conference.  A 10 team conference such as that could make over $20 million per team with UT, 0U, and ND making well above $30 million per year.  

This will probably happen in about 2-3 years. why 2-3 years?  The Big 12 does very well financially with 10 teams right now.  UT, 0U and A&M are to make $20million a year starting in 2012, however, their tier1 television contract (ESPN) is due to renegotiation by 2015 and, coincidentally, so does Notre Dame's contract with NBC/Comcast expire in 2015. Right now, Notre Dame is still doing very well with their NBC contract until then (about $15 million/year) but, as stated beforehand, they may have to make different television choices by 2015. Notre Dame is currently headlong into developing its own sports network as fast as they can.  Notre Dame would then be in the same boat as BYU in that, if they choose to join a conference as a full member, the Big12 is the most attractive conference in order to do that due to the conference setup allowing individual school networks. UT and University of Kansas (internet digital channel) already have their own networks and Missouri working diligently to build their regional network (tier3) to get the St Lewis and Kansas City, MO markets. Of course,this assumes that A&M goes to the SEC (where they have always wanted to be).  If A&M doesnt go to the SEC, then BU and the "Battle on the Brazos" is safe and the new conference only needs to drop one team (probably ISU) to add ND and another team with a good market (probably Pitt or Louisville).

You mentioned Baylor to PAC12 - it will not happen.  The anti-religious and politically correct PAC12 will not take a religiously affiliated school...period. If they did, they would have easily taken BYU over Utah last year since BYU is far and away better market than Utah. BYU owns the Utah market and the mormon audience. When Oklahoma and Texas were considering a move to the PAC10 during the realignment mess last year, it came out that CAL-Berkley and Stanford objected to any package that contained Baylor just as they later did with BYU. 

Also, if A&M leaves for the SEC, expect UT to not play them in football or basketball in the foreseeable future. The Turkey day game will probably be replace with Notre Dame or similar game.  Expect the "Battle on the Brazos" with Baylor to go away as well.  A&M has also had a longstanding rivalry with Texas Tech which has become more emotional the last few years.  Expect ALL these fan-friendly fun games to go away if aggie goes to the SEC. The Texas teams will most likely block A&M out for at least 10 years (that is what happened to Arkie, Houston and SMU). 

All this could be premature of course since it's not set in stone that A&M will in fact leave or get accepted to the SEC. Right now, the reports are that the votes are very close with Vanderbilt coming out adamantly against an aggie invite along with LSU, Arkie, and both Mississippi schools leaning against, while Florida and Georgia sitting on the fence without knowing who the 14th team will be. It takes 9 out of 12 SEC schools to approve an invitation to the conference so the numbers are right about at the 9 approval requirement - give or take one or two. And the responses from law suits showing damages (Kenn Star at BU), the state of Texas (Legislature representatives showing damages to individual communities if aggie leaves), or the conference imposing  considerable exit fees due to breach of contract (initially in the range of $28 million) and could also show damages due to endangering television contract after a 10 year commitment from A&M last year.  Right now, the SEC schools receive less (~$18 million) than A&M will in the Big12 starting next year (guaranteed at least $20mil/year) due to new media contract that A&M agreed to last year. 

Your position about the Longhorn Network the other day was off the mark as well but I've written a lot more than I intended and need to stop.

Keep up the good work

Bob

Killeen /Ft Hood

Lynn replies:

Izzat so?

I  care nothing about the NFL, but college sports is a passion -- football that is.  I disagree with a lot of your theories.  BYU delivers one market -- Salt Lake City (or the state of Utah if you prefer.)  SLC is about the size of Austin and the population of the whole state may not be much more than Houston.  So your theory there is way off the mark.  Utah, which is in the same market, has done much better on the field for the past few years.  The Aggies deliver Dallas and Houston and much of the rest of 25,000,000 population state.  That's why the SEC wants them in the first place.

The mighty schools of Louisville and Pitt will not excite anybody.  Sorry.  Notre dame is down, but not out.  I see them in the Big Ten before the Big 12.  I agree that ND would be a great replacement for the Agro-Americans on Thanksgiving.  This is about butts in seats and eyes before TV screens.  Texas and Notre Dame would be a ratings bonanza. 

You're right about Baylor and the Pac 10/12/14 or whatever it is.  But I hate to say it on the air.  I have high hopes for Baylor to make it somewhere, but it's really doubtful.  TCU is in a worse situation.  Its great record is an accomplishment, but couldn't have happened in a major conference playing Top 10 teams.  Also, Fort Worth is too close to the Cowboys and TCU is never going to be a big draw for ratings -- especially if it ever slips a bit on the field of play.

My position on the Longhorn Network was perfectly on the mark.  The "have" schools like Nebraska and the "have-not" schools like Kansas State are equally PO-ed about it.  Nebraska and Colorado went packing because of Texas -- even before the LN goes on the air.  Sorry, but I don't think your analysis is very much on target.  Texas doesn't want to play in a league with a bunch of second string teams -- and that's what Louisville, Pitt and BYU are.  Texas fancies itself academically with Cal and Stanford and in a football league with USC.  That's why I think Texas will eventually go West -- probably with Texas Tech.

Your point about Baylor was right on, but your thoughts on TV markets are not close.  But I enjoy the debate!

:)

Lynn